Applying an ARMA model to a new data series (independent validation set)

Jan 18, 2013 at 3:46 PM

I am an academic hydrologist who wants to do ARMA modelling for river flow time series.  I am happliy creating ARMA models for a given hydrological time series in CRONOS.  However, once I have defined an ARMA model on a series, I need to reapply it to a new series.  So, say I have 15 years of daily river flow records.  I might define the ARMA model on the first 10 years.  Once defined, I then want to reapply the model I created to the remaining 5 years to assess how well the model replicates patterns in an independent data series.  I'm struggling to work out how to do this (beyond applying the ARMA model's equation in EXCEL or such like) - can you help?  Is this something I can use CRONOS to do?

Thanks, Nick Mount - University of Nottingham, UK.